Recession Declaration

Well, “they” finally told us. “We’re in a Recession”. I guess it’s hard news to hear, but also delivers information that we’ve sensed for awhile. Or perhaps the media and the political campaign wanted us to “feel” it for awhile.

I had a client send me a “bad news for the industry” pdf with lots of facts and figures “proving” that this was going to be a horrible time for everyone. but they based most of their data on interviews and surveys of Americans.

So I decided to look for some facts.

According to Forbes magazine, even after yesterday’s declaration of the Recession, that it’s being a YEAR long already… they state:

However, a popular yardstick for recession–two successive quarters of GDP decline, has not yet been reached. The economy dipped (-.2% GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2007. But in the first quarter of 2008 it grew .9%, and in the second quarter, it grew 2.8%.

Doesn’t sound like a REAL BAD economy, like they keep telling us, eh?

I agree we’re in a downward economy, but historically, the majority of “recession declarations” are given when the recession is in recovery or near recovery (according to NBC Today show this morning). Also, the media hounding us about this “Bush Economy” has led to a psychological recession (as indicated by previously mentioned “survey-based” article). In that article that point out the bleak outlook is represented largely in people who get their news from MSNBC and NPR (Social Liberals).

There have been 11 recessions (including this “one”) since WW2 — and on average they last 10 months. Only 2 lasted longer (16 months; early 70’s and early 80’s).

Then comes the “experts” who keep bringing up the “recession that is as bad as the Great Depression”. Paulson said yesterday that there is absolutely “no comparison”. He went on to say that it’s fear mongering. Go figure! Since Obama used it repeated as the Kingpin of his political campaign — people started to believe it. BUT THERE’S NO TRUTH in it.

I’m not headed into 2009 blindly, we expect it to be a challenging year — but ultimately, I believe that the “new administration” which is now defending the economy (with the Governors meeting today), will turn the economy around and look like saints (since they’ve lowered the bar so that they don’t have to raise it that far).

This (!) is the story we should be propagating — even if we don’t support Obama 100%.

What do you all think? I don’t mind being told I’m wrong… I’m not an economist or an expert. However, I do know that I trust facts and statistics. And I trust a God who will meet my needs.

Make sure you’re ready for 2009! We have low-cost marketing strategies that will help you standout in a ecomony where money is still being spent. We’ll make sure it’s with you!

1 Comment
  • Tobey

    I enjoy reading your blogs Mark…they make me think. It seems to me that much of what we are seeing is that people are being extremely cautious with their money. If we would have been cautious in our bank loans, credit card purchases, etc. we wouldn’t even be talking about this “recession”….handle your affairs with God’s wisdom. All will be fine.

    December 15, 2008 at 6:32 pm